|S1: 0.7958||R1: 0.8000|
|S2: 0.7936||R2: 0.8043|
|S3: 0.7870||R3: 0.8125|
AUD has traded either side of 80 US cents in recent days without conviction in either direction. Interest rate expectations are driving movements in other majors but until we receive a clear signal on this from either the RBA or the wider Australian economy, the AUD may well remain range-bound.
The shooting star from the 8th of September remains the dominant candle in the AUD/USD daily chart. The downtrend line above is drawn from it’s high and unless AUD can move and stay above this line, the path of least resistance would seem to be downward. $0.7958 and $0.7936 may offer some support, but nothing that even mild downward momentum would struggle with.
An RBA rate move, when it comes will be to the upside. However, timing that move won’t be as easy to determine. The RBA is happy to sit and wait for wage inflation to signal a need for monetary tightening. The RBA next meet is on October 3rd with little important Australian macro data due between then and now. The two-day US FOMC could, of course, have a bearing on the pair.