Pairs in Focus: The Aussie Got Lowe
|S1: 0.7947||R1: 0.8060|
|S2: 0.7870||R2: 0.8102|
|S3: 0.7822||R3: 0.8124|
Despite economic data misses, a still live December Fed meeting and falling iron ore prices the Aussie dollar was still hovering above the 80 cent level. It took a speech by RBA governor Philip Lowe indicating that a rate rise was still a while away for the Aussie to fall into the 79’s.
The Aussie dollar is trading below the 14MA for the first time in 2 weeks and the RSI is also trending lower sitting at 46. After Governor Lowe’s speech, we also saw a shooting star candlestick formation. Indicating a potential short-term reversal.
The data calendar will be dominated by central bank policymakers rather than hard economic data this week.
Tuesday – Janet Yellen is due to deliver a speech titled “Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting. Yellen will probably reiterate that inflation expectations are what matters for future inflation.
Thursday – The key event to watch will be RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle’s speech on “Central Bank Independence in Retrospect” at a BoE conference in London. RBA’s policy statements seem to have an optimistic bias on growth. However, guidance from the RBA board has advocated patience and seems wary of being too hawkish in case of stoking an even higher AUD.