Can Budget Improvements Save the Euro?

Yet another crucial summit and European Union leaders face major challenges to save the eurozone. EUR/USD have been sinking since yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi cooled market expectations about the prospect of an acceleration in ECB bond purchasing. The central bank also cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% as widely expected. Meanwhile, the Bank of England didn’t surprise the markets and kept the size of its asset purchase program unchanged at £275 billion. BoE also decided to keep interest rates at 0.5%.

Since ECB President Mario Draghi discouraged expectations that the central bank would massively increase bond purchases, EUR/USD remains bearish. The markets were very optimistic that European Union leaders would sort out the crisis at 15th summit. However, the price action in the forex market suggests that investors are not so sure anymore. Some investors think that they are going to fail to agree on a scheme to support indebted countries.

It is obvious that the future of the eurozone depends on convincing the markets that EU leaders are capable of bringing strong solutions. Yes, this is 15th summit and another failure to rescue the euro can spark uncontrollable developments and panic on the global financial markets.

Today we see that the Asian stock markets opened lower as steps from the European Central Bank disappointed the market participants. NIKKEI started the day at 8,521.33, previous close was 8,664.58. HANG SENG opened at 18,730.52, previous close was 19,107.81. Senior strategist at Nomura Holdings, Juichi Wako said “The ECB outcome means the European issues won’t be solved easily. The best scenario that the market had expected was for the ECB to decide to expand purchases of government bonds and then for the European Union to strengthen finance regulations”.

EUR/USD is trading at 1.3316 by the time of typing and for today resistances are located at 1.3362 and 1.3435. Support levels are 1.3265 and 1.3192.

GBP/USD is at 1.5609. Resistance levels are located at 1.5667 and 1.5735. Supports are located at 1.5567 and 1.5508.

USD/CHF is trading at 0.9267 by the time of typing and for today resistances are located at 0.9295 and 0.9330. Support levels are 0.9185 and 0.9126.

AUD/USD is trading at 1.0095. Resistances are located at 1.0153 and 1.0228. Support levels are 1.0079 and 0.9994.

The economic calendar is pretty heavy today so we expect high volatility in the forex market. German Trade Balance and Final CPI figures will be released at 07:00 GMT. French Industrial Production and Government Budget Balance reports will be released at 07:45 GMT. U.K. PPI Input and Trade balance data is due at 09:30 GMT. Statistics Canada will release Trade Balance and Labor Activity reports at 13:30 GMT. U.S. Trade Balance data will be released at 13:30 GMT. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report will be released at 14:55 GMT.



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