Dollar Hurt by US Protectionism, Fears Data

5:00 am Mar GER ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (exp 71.0, prev 69.8) Mar ZEW Current Situation Index (exp -25.0, prev -19.5) 8:30 am US Q4 Current Account Balance (exp -$215.0 bln, prev -$195.8 bln) 8:30 am US Feb Retail Sales (exp -0.8%, prev 2.3%) US Feb Retail Sales ex autos (exp -0.5%, prev 2.2%) 10:00 am US Jan Business Inventories (exp 0.3%, prev 0.7%)

Dollar weakness extends into the European session ahead of a potentially dollar negative data at the US open as well as the after effect of those comments from US Undersecretary’s Tim Adams warning Tokyo against its yen handling. US retail sales are expected to have fallen by as much as 1.5% (vs consensus of -0.8%) and core sales down by as much as -1.3% (vs consensus of -0.5%) due to payback of January’s milder than usual temperatures. The expected $215 bln current account deficit for Q4 would account for a record 7% of GDP, which should resurrect the negative implications of the swelling external debt, particularly in light of the UAE’s decision to cut down its USD reserves by 10%. This week’s release of the January TICS data from the US Treasury will shed light on whether net foreign capital flows into the US have remained below the record trade deficit.



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