EUR/USD Climbs Before Release of Fed Minutes, Still Uncertainty

Today the euro gained some ground against the greenback on expectations the U.S. central bank will step in with a third round of quantitative easing.

However, it seems that the pair will be capped at 1.2300 level as uncertainty about the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) continues to weigh on the forex market.

The markets were expecting the German Constitutional Court to decide yesterday whether to grant a temporary injunction against German laws on the fiscal pact and the ESM, but the court president announced that the court would undertake a constitutionally sensible assessment of the legal complaints that may go beyond normal procedures in weighing temporary injunctions.

This means a further delay in launching the ESM. Not surprisingly, the markets’ reaction to the news was negative.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said “A considerable postponement of the ESM (the bailout fund) which was foreseen for July of this year could cause considerable further uncertainty on markets beyond Germany and a considerable loss of trust in the euro zone’s ability to make necessary decisions in an appropriate time frame.

Doubts about the constitutional possibility or the readiness of Germany to stem dangers for the financial stability of the euro zone could lead to the current crisis symptoms being exacerbated considerably” in a press conference yesterday.

This week investors will be focusing more on U.S. economic data to gauge the likelihood of possible changes in the Federal Reserve’s stance on further monetary easing. For today, the main focus will be on the FOMC meeting minutes, providing hopefully some insight on just how far away the Federal Reserve is from implementing another round of quantitative easing.

The Asian stock markets opened lower today as fears of a global slowdown weighs on the investors’ sentiment. NIKKEI started the day at 8,819.04, previous close was 8,857.73. HANG SENG opened at 19,264.58, previous close was 19,396.36.

EUR/USD is trading at 1.2273 by the time of typing and for today resistances are located at 1.2312 and 1.2372. Support levels are 1.2230 and 1.2180.

GBP/USD is at 1.5525. Resistance levels are located at 1.5555 and 1.5605. Supports are located at 1.5481 and 1.5415.

USD/CHF is trading at 0.9789 by the time of typing and for today resistances are located at 0.9830 and 0.9908. Support levels are 0.9740 and 0.9676.

AUD/USD is trading at 1.0213. Resistances are located at 1.0240 and 1.0322. Support levels are 1.0155 and 1.0072.

The economic calendar is not so heavy today. Statistics Canada will release Trade Balance report at 13:30 GMT. U.S. Trade Balance figures will be released at 13:30 GMT. Crude oil inventories data will be released at 15:30 GMT. FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 19:00 GMT.



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