Shaky Euro Braces for US Data Avalanche
5:00 am E-12 Jan CPI y/y – final (exp 2.4%, prev 2.2%) 8:30 am US Q4 GDP – prelim (exp 1.6%, prev 1.4%) 8:30 am CAN GDP (exp 0.3%, prev 0.2%) 9:30 am NY Fed Pres Geithner Speaks 10:00 am US Jan Jan Existing Home Sales (exp 6.58 mln, prev 6.60 mln) 10:00 am US Feb Feb Consumer Confidence (exp 104.5, prev 106.3) 10:00 am Feb Chicago PMI (exp 58.1, prev 58.5) 11:00 am Chicago Fed Pres Moscow Speaks . 7:30 pm AUD Q4 GDP q/q (exp 0.8%, prev 0.2%)
This morning’s FX focus should further shift away from Japan and into the Americas with a batch of key releases from the US and Canada.
This is far from saying that the yen’s rally is over. The fact that PM Koizumi has joined the flashing of the green light for the Bank of Japan to end its quantitative easing raises the possibility that the central bank will reduce liquidity from its current account liquidity pumping operations in next week’s policy meeting. (more on this below).
US Q4 GDP is expected to be revised up to 1.6% from the advanced 1.1% figure–still the lowest in 3 years.
The upward revision is seen largely emerging from inventory accumulation, but the market reaction may not be as material since economists are already issuing Q1 GDP forecasts of an increase as much as 4.5%.
Nonetheless, the Personal Consumer Expenditure will be scrutinized, with a revision to 1.3-1.4% from 1.1% could be dollar supportive.