AUD/USD – AUD Faces Further Resistance

Essential Insights

The Aussie Dollar is flirting once more with a sustained break above US$0.80. But as it did earlier this year, the currency has thus far rejected any moves towards 81 US cents. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept interest rates on hold for 15 months in succession. Preferring to wait for wage growth to pick up, before tightening rates again. 

Technicals

The uptrend line drawn from the early June lows remains intact and the Aussie has tracked this line higher since August 15th. We saw a shooting star on the daily chart on September 8th.The high from which is our R2 level. RSI 14 is flirting with 70 on the weekly chart. I note that Daily RSI peaked here just before the end of July sell off. 81 US cents may be just too far too soon at the moment.

Fundamentals

Australian economic data has been largely positive of late, though a drop off in business confidence has muddied the waters. Concerns about consumer debt, house prices and the health of the mortgage market are barriers to further AUD gains. Which may only come if a rate rise looks likely. Tuesday’s RBA minutes may shed light on the prospects for that eventuality.