Duran Duran, Reaganomics and Hightops the Aussie Dollar Returns to the Early 80’s
|S1: 0.7900||R1: 0.8010|
|S2: 0.7870||R2: 0.8060|
|S3: 0.7807||R3: 0.8124|
Despite three missed consensus figures for the major data releases last week (retail sales, trade balance & GDP) the AUD punched through 80 cents, which was a significant level of resistance. There was a short-term suspension of the US debt limit but the USD continued to trade on the soft side, falling against most G10 currencies.
The AUD which was prime for a breakout smashed through the 0.80 10 levels it was struggling to crack last week. It cracked through the previous multiyear high we saw in July and briefly topped above 81 cents. Near term, resistance moves up to the previous high at 0.80 60. Momentum continues on the AUD with it continuing to make higher highs, sitting above 14MA & a RSI close to 60.
It’s not quite as data-heavy for the AUD as last week however we do have Aussie unemployment figures out Thursday. Geopolitical tensions with N. Korea, the effects of the hurricanes in Florida and US political posturing will be the main focus of traders this week.
Thursday- Aussie Unemployment- we’ve had some strong results from forward-looking indicators such as the ANZ Job Ad’s and as such consensus is at c.20k increase. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%. Digging closer into the data will be interesting to see if the divergence between full and part-time work continues given last month’s gain was driven entirely by part-time jobs. – Consensus +19.2K, 5.6%
Thursday -US Inflation- Inflation dynamics remain key for determining the path of the US Fed tightening as such will be the key US economic data point released this week – Consensus 0.3%