Forex Weekly Technical Analysis – 01/01/12
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
First of all, I would like to say happy new year! This year will be as volatile as the last year and of course, many traders’ focus will be on EUR/USD. Headlines from the eurozone and the United States will dominate the financial markets. Last year’s candle is like an impressive shooting star which tells us that EUR/USD bulls had a very tough time. Last year’s candle opened around 1.3350, the pair had climbed until 1.4950 levels and it finally closed below crucial 1.3000 zone.
EUR/USD trend (longer-term) is certainly bearish but of course, that doesn’t mean that we will not see any retracements. If the pair can pass 1.3085 resistance it will head to 1.3255. However, if the pair breaks 1.2900 support then it will head to 1.2646.
The latest CTFC (Commitments of Traders) report shows that the currency speculators increased their net short positions to record highs. They increased their net short EUR positions by 14.1K contracts to 127.9K
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is still moving inside wedge formation and it seems that the pair may see some support between 1.5150 and 1.5000 areas. However, if the pair breaks 1.5000 support, falling speed will accelerate and probably we will see 1.3350 levels next. Well, this is the long term scenario.
Daily charts suggest that GBP/USD will move to 1.5590 as long as it can stay above 1.5466. If the pair can break 1.5590 resistance then next target is 1.5680. If 1.5466 support fails to hold the pair, a visit to 1.5340 is inevitable.
The latest CTFC Commitments of Traders report showed that the currency speculators increased their short positions slightly. They increased their net short GBP positions by 3.2K contracts to 29.2K.