Prediction Markets
Trade on Real Events

Prediction markets are platforms where you buy and sell shares based on the outcome of real-world events. Each share trades between $0.00 and $1.00 — representing the market's estimated probability of an event occurring. If your prediction is correct, each share pays out $1.00. If wrong, it expires worthless.

For example, if you believe a candidate will win an election and shares are priced at $0.60 (60% probability), you can buy "Yes" shares at $0.60. If the candidate wins, you receive $1.00 per share — a $0.40 profit. If they lose, you lose your $0.60 per share. Your maximum risk is always capped at the purchase price.

Markets cover a wide range of categories: politics and elections, sports outcomes, economic indicators (will the Fed cut rates?), weather events, cryptocurrency prices, cultural events, and more. The prices aggregate collective intelligence from thousands of traders, often producing forecasts more accurate than polls or expert predictions.

The industry is growing rapidly. Polymarket processed over $3 billion in volume during the 2024 US election cycle alone. Kalshi became the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in 2021, opening the door to legal event trading in the United States. As regulation catches up, prediction markets are becoming a mainstream financial instrument.